October 03, 2011

Euro Drops to Eight-Month Low Versus Dollar Before Europe Crisis Meeting

The euro fell to an eight-month low against the dollar as European finance ministers prepared to weigh the threat of a default in Greece, which is making fresh budget cuts to secure an international bailout.

The 17-nation currency slid after falling in the third quarter the most since June 2010. The yen rose against the dollar on demand for a refuge as sentiment at Japan’s biggest manufacturers remained below levels seen before a record earthquake struck in March. The Turkish lira approached a record low as inflation slowed in September.

“The key question will be whether Greece has done enough to secure the next tranche of its bailout fund,” said Jane Foley, a senior currency strategist at Rabobank International in London. “The concern about the euro-zone crisis, layered on top of poor growth expectations, weighs on the euro.”

The euro depreciated 0.2 percent to $1.3364 per dollar at 7 a.m. in New York, from $1.3387 on Sept. 30, after declining to $1.3314, its lowest level since Jan. 18. The euro decreased 0.3 percent to 102.77 yen, from 103.12. The dollar slid 0.3 percent to 76.86 yen.

Turkey’s lira declined as much as 0.5 percent to 1.8684 per dollar after the statistics office in Ankara reported that inflation slowed to 6.2 percent in September from 6.7 percent a month earlier. The lira depreciated to a record low 1.8699 on Sept. 26.

Euro Net Shorts

The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on a drop in the euro versus those on a gain -- so-called net shorts -- climbed to 82,473 in the week ended Sept. 30. That’s up from 79,460 a week earlier, statistics from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed Sept. 30.

European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn told reporters an option for including the European Central Bank in leveraging of the euro area’s temporary bailout fund will be on the table when finance ministers meet today in Luxembourg.

Today was the original target date for approving an 8 billion-euro ($11 billion) loan payment to Greece, the sixth installment of the 110 billion-euro lifeline assembled in May 2010. That decision was pushed back until mid-October as Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou tries to close a deficit gap.

Greece’s government approved 6.6 billion euros of austerity measures, including firing state workers, the Finance Ministry said yesterday.

European Outlook

Europe’s “crisis will probably be stretched for many, many months,” said Imre Speizer, a strategist in Auckland at Westpac Banking Corp., Australia’s second-largest lender. “A crisis prolonged means the euro will keep sliding. A full bailout and the stemming of contagion coming out of Europe require a lot of money, certainly more than the 440 billion euros that they’ve agreed on so far.”

Europe’s manufacturing industry contracted for a second month in September. The final reading of gauge based on a survey of purchasing managers in the 17-nation euro region fell to 48.5 from 49 in August, London-based Markit Economics said today. That’s above an initial estimate for September of 48.4 published on Sept. 22. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

The yen climbed against the dollar after the Bank of Japan said today its quarterly Tankan index of sentiment increased to 2 in September from minus 9 in June, encouraged investors to take refuge in Japan’s currency. The reading was below 6 in March and in line with the median projection of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners, gained as much as 0.8 percent to 79.154, the highest level since Jan. 20. The greenback tends to appreciate during periods of economic and financial turmoil as investors take refuge in the world’s main reserve currency.

Manufacturing in the U.S. probably expanded in September at the slowest pace in more than two years, economists said before a report today. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index was little changed at 50.3 last month from 50.6 in August, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. A level of 50 is the dividing line between growth and contraction.

The U.S. currency advanced 7.8 percent in the past month in the best performance among the 10 developed-nation peers tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Currency Indexes.

Source: www.bloomberg.com

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