April 05, 2011

Foreign exchange: End of the euro exchange rate?

The ongoing debt crisis in the euro area poses a threat to the future of the euro exchange rate suggests think tank.

The euro exchange rate is lower against the majority of major currencies it pairs with.

News out this morning is that the risk is roughly one in seven that Europe's ongoing debt crisis will push member nations to abandon the shared currency.

April 04, 2011

Politics will bedevil resolving the euro crisis

Last week’s widening in sovereign bond spreads and the results of stress tests on Irish banks have reminded us that the eurozone has made hardly any progress in actual crisis resolution – in spite of its pretentious grand bargain. Over the next few weeks, I will try to map out various scenarios of how the crisis might evolve. It is probably the toughest challenge the European Union has confronted in its history. The eventual outcome will depend on a complex interaction of politics, finance and economics.

April 03, 2011

Murder on the EU Express

With the monetary union coming apart, the finger-pointing has begun. Who really killed Europe?

You remember Agatha Christie’s classic whodunit Murder on the Orient Express? The problem for the great Belgian sleuth Hercule Poirot was that there were far too many suspects. The strange death of the European Union may prove to be a rather similar case.

April 02, 2011

ECB rate increases to open policy gap with Fed

THE European Central Bank is poised to raise interest rates faster than the Federal Reserve for the first time in four decades, opening up a transatlantic policy gap that may help the euro endure the sovereign debt crisis.

April 01, 2011

One way to end Irish crisis — let banks go bust

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Missing in the 88 pages the Central Bank of Ireland has produced in determining that the Irish banking system is undercapitalized by some $34 billion (24 billion euros) is a different way to end the euro-zone nation’s financial crisis.

It’s an elegant and simple solution, and one that could prove cheaper: Let all the banks collapse.