March 15, 2013

Greek fiscal targets are unrealistic: Bank group

ATHENS: Heavily-indebted Greece was set fiscal targets that were not achievable, in contrast to Ireland, which is emerging as a success story, a global bank lobby group said this week.


In Ireland, "consolidation measures have been painful but more manageable politically and socially," Jeffrey Anderson, senior European director for the Institute of International Finance ( IIF), said in a research note.

"These targets were achievable; those set for Greece, by contrast, were not," he added.

On Wednesday, Ireland returned to the 10-year bond market for the first time since receiving an international bailout in 2010, and raised almost double the amount anticipated by analysts.

Meanwhile, international creditors have suspended an audit of Greek reforms as too many technical issues persist to unlock access to a scheduled loan tranche of 2.8 billion euros ($3.7 billion).

"As additional technical work will be necessary to settle these issues, the mission will take a short break to allow this work to be completed," the European Union (EU), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and European Central Bank (ECB) troika said in a statement.

The IIF's Anderson argued that giving additional help to Greece would save money later.

"Applying the Irish example in Greece to help restart growth would require some additional funding," he said.

"The final cost, however, would be much less than might eventually be needed if (Greek) output continues to fall and doubts about debt sustainability remain entrenched," Anderson added.

A March debt writedown and a December debt buyback arranged with the IIF's help reduced Greek debt by 58 percent of the nation's total output, the lobby group said.

The effective reduction, taking Greek bank recapitalisation costs into account, was worth 41 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), it said.

There are still concerns about the sustainability of Greece's debt, however. While the public deficit is forecast to fall to 4.3 percent of GDP this year, the Greek economy contracted last year by 6.4 percent. Ireland received an 85-billion-euro rescue from the EU and the IMF in late 2010.

Dublin's programme has regularly been praised by the public creditors -- and Ireland hopes to be the first eurozone nation to exit a bailout by the end of this year.

In Greece, the EU and the IMF have committed 240 billion euros overall in rescue loans since 2010, and private creditors have agreed to cancel more than 100 billion euros in debt.

Some analysts nonetheless argue that a new write-down of Greek debt will be necessary to make Athens' burden sustainable, this time targeting bonds held by the ECB. The IMF has voiced support for such a move, while the ECB has repeatedly ruled it out.

indiatimes.com

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